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COP28: Winners and Losers

A summit that left a positive mark for all the countries of the world? Or not?

Let's go back a few months, to last December, to reflect with a cool head on the outcome of COP28 held in Dubai: the most striking effect was the writing, in black and white, of the need for "a just and orderly transition from fossil fuels". It was the message that bounced around the media all over the world, announcing an epochal turning point, certainly even more significant considering that this motion was also approved by historically hostile countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and Iran. Is everything good, then? Will that long-awaited green revolution finally happen? As always, we need to analyze and get to the bottom of the proclamations to have a more complete vision.

Let's start with a fact: 2023 was the hottest year ever with a global temperature increase of 1.4°C. This effect has hit developing countries the hardest, Africa in the lead, which continue to suffer the effects of climate change, despite contributing to this disaster for only 2% of the polluting emissions of the entire planet. It is always the same story of the weak who continues to be crushed by the strongest (in this case the industrialized countries). Another fact helps us reflect on the importance of DOING and really doing: more than 165 billion dollars was the cost of the extreme events that hit the planet due to climate change in 2022. And COP 28 responds with the loss and damage fund, allocating, for now promised, about 700 million dollars. There is just a small differential gap to fill of just 164 billion and 300 million dollars. And we're only talking about one year, 2022.

So who are the winners of COP28?

It would be nice to say the whole world but it is not so. The West, the Asian giants, the oil-rich Middle East, continue to show the way following their expansionist and economic development strategies, leaving the crumbs (perhaps) to the South of the world: South America, Africa, Southeast Asia. Regardless of the fact that the future, which is increasingly taking shape, will be characterized precisely in these areas where the average age is very low, the social and economic push is immense numerically speaking.

“Climate finance is the key to the negotiation. Without funds, developing countries simply cannot abandon fossil fuels,” says Brandon Wu, a COP veteran. But above all, they will continue to experience “silent colonizations,” with the risk of ever-increasing social instability. How can you think of making an energy transition in areas where electricity does not yet reach? While the rest of the world “gorges” on electricity? This is the challenge of moving from a bureaucratic language that is written on official documents to actual action for a true and effective green transition. Even in this latest COP28, there was activity by the diplomats of the richest countries who filed down words and messages with the aim of avoiding dangerous actions on the issues debated. And we have arrived at the 28th edition of the COP!


All of the above leads to the statement that the balance of power is still firmly in the hands of the richest countries, while the planet continues to walk on an increasingly dangerous path for its future and that of humanity. The umpteenth appointment will be in November at the next COP29 in Azerbaijan: should we witness a new farce? Or will the planet itself decide to put a loud and clear exclamation point?

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